Urban Transport Strategy. Management in Developing Countries John A Cracknell, страница 80

e)  Seoul (in the past) is understood to have used a scheme in which cars were prohibited for use if the last digit of the number plate corresponded to the last digit of the date and thus applied 3 days per month but was not equitable if the number plate ended in “1”;

f)  Sao Paulo uses a scheme over a wide central area (within the Inner Ring - about 15km diameter) in which 20% of vehicles ("1" and "2" on Mondays etc) are prohibited from 07:00-08:00 and 17:00-20:00 for weekdays;

g)  Manila uses a scheme which prohibits certain vehicles, again identified by number plates, from operating on the main traffic arteries during peak periods;

9.6.2.      There are obvious risks to the “odd and even” policy and its variants.  The schemes may:

a)  encourage an increase in the number of vehicles owned, to provide households with both odd– and even–numbered (or other numbers to avoid the system in force) vehicles;

b)  induce more trips by permitted private vehicles than were made by those vehicles before the prohibitions were introduced;

c)  generate increased taxi trips if taxis are excluded from the scheme; taxis may be just as, if not more, polluting than conventional cars;

d)  present a fraud and evasion problem (false number plates);

e)  not provide a long term solution as it will be undermined by growth in vehicle ownership over time; and

f)  be undermined by concessions-exemptions (e.g. for example for "official" vehicles); this is believed to have happened in Lagos.

9.6.3.      Some observers think that the schemes are unhelpful.  For example, a study of the Mexico City scheme^[40] stated “A ban restricting each car from driving on a specified work-day is found to have increased total driving. Since an additional car effectively represents additional “driving permits”, many households have bought an additional car, and increased driving. Greater use of old cars, congestion effects and increased weekend driving may also have contributed to this disappointing result: The ban has high welfare costs, and appears to deliver none of the intended benefits - quite on the contrary”

9.6.4.      On the positive side, the "odd-even" or similar schemes:

a)  are almost always accepted by the public as they demonstrate a commitment by government to take positive action to reduce congestion and related air pollution

b)  are less difficult to enforce than feared (applied in Mexico City, Bogota, Santiago etc) and even if there are infringements, provided enforcement is reasonably efficient, the fines can finance the increased enforcement effort;

c)  if acted upon, can give a “breathing space” (in all senses) to develop something better; and

d)  generally assist road based public transport at least in the short term as traffic flow conditions do improve (Bogota reports 20% increase in average travel speeds) and might reduce car use if coupled with public transport improvements (although no data exist to verify).

9.7          Use of vehicles – demand management by physical measures

9.7.1.      Traffic can be managed through the use of physical measures, designed to make the use of motor vehicles less attractive.  Measures may reduce speeds or extend travel distances or prevent access to certain areas.  Typical measures are:

a)  pedestrianisation – widely used in city centres in both developed and developing cities and increasingly pedestrian streets are used in developing cities;

b)  route-area controls - the most well known being Gothenburg which has sought to limit traffic within the city centre, by creating a system of cells between which there is no direct access for cars.  To move between cells, drivers have to return to a ring road which encircles the controlled area or use public transport for direct access;