Decision making. Everyone is a Decision Maker. Types of Managerial Decisions. Identifying the Problem, страница 5

Regret minimises want to minimise the amount of dissonance they experience after the fact. They try to make decisions that have outcomes not too far removed from the best outcome possible under the circumstances.

The Insufficient Reasoner Decision Maker

The last group of decision makers would simplify the decision by making the assumption that all possible outcomes of the decision have an equal chance of occurring. The assumption follows the reasoning that if no information exists to support the relative advantage of one alternative, one might as well assume that all alternatives have an equal chance.

Thus, the evaluation of alternatives comes down to evaluating outcomes through the use of information. When sufficiently valid information exists, the greater the chances that planners would choose an alternative that reflects relevant facts. When insufficiently valid information exists, the greater the chances that planners would choose an alternative that reflects personal and personality factors.

3) Choosing an Alternatives

The purpose in selecting an alternative is to achieve a predetermined objective by solving a problem. This point is an important one. It means that a decision is not an end in itself but only a means to an end. The selection of the alternative should not be an isolated act. The critical point is that decision making is more than an act of choosing; it is a dynamic process.

How to choose the best alternative? Write each solution you are considering on a separate piece of paper. Below the solution, draw a line vertically down the centre of the paper. Label one column advantages and one column disadvantages. Now, some more analytical thinking comes into play. Analysing each facet of the solution and its effect on the problem, listing each of the advantages and disadvantages you can think of.

One way to help you think of the advantages and disadvantages is to role-play each solution. Call in a few of your employees and play out each solution. Ask them for their reactions. Based on what you observe and on their feedback, you will have a better idea of the advantages and disadvantages of each solution you are considering.

After you complete this process for each solution, select those solutions, which have the most advantages. At this point, you should be considering only two or three. In order to select the most appropriate solution, you should check each solution against the following criteria:

1.   Cost effectiveness;

2.   Time constraints;

3.   Availability of manpower, material, etc.;

4.   Your own intuition.

Before you actually implement the solution, you should evaluate it. Ask yourself these questions:

1.   Are the objectives of the solution sound and clear and not complex?

2.   Will the solution achieve the objectives?

3.   What are the possibilities it will fail and in what way?

6. Implementing the Decision

1) Developing an Action Plan

Finding the solution does not mean the problem is solved. Decision must be efficiently implemented to achieve the objective for which it was made. It is possible for a good decision to be hurt by poor implementation. In this sense, implementation may be more important than the actual choice of the alternative. Now, you need to design a plan of action. Designing and carrying out the plan of action is equally as important as the solution. The best solution can fail because it is not implemented correctly. When designing the plan of action, consider the following:

1.   Who will be involved in the solution;

2.   Who will be affected by the solution;

3.   What course of action will be taken;

4.   How should the course of action be presented to company employees, customers, vendors, etc.;

5.   When will it happen — the time frame;

6.   Where will it happen;

7.   How will it happen;

8.   What is needed to make it happen.